NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Cold, Arctic air is settling in Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky for the weekend and next week. According to the forecast, temperatures will be well below average. In fact, temperatures for many areas could be below freezing from Monday morning to Thursday afternoon.
There is a good surge of moisture moving in overtop this cold airmass, and wintry precipitation is possible on Sunday and Monday! You’ll want to stay Weather Alert!
On Friday, the first Arctic front brought colder temperatures to the region. This will aid in the setup for the wintry weather on Sunday into Monday.
Looking at the weekend forecast, temperatures are quite cold Friday and Saturday. Saturday morning lows will be in the low 20s and teens! On Sunday morning, temperatures start in the upper 20s to lower 30s with moisture moving in above the ground.
This will support the wintry mix Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, warmer air moves in and rain/storms will be likely. Then by Monday, temperatures drop below freezing with some snow and even colder air with Arctic blast number two passing through.
So, let’s look closer at the second system from Sunday to Monday. This is a massive weather system, likely to bring in many inches of ice and snow in parts of Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana. The setup and track of the surface low will be key for the precipitation type.
At this time, the European forecast model has the low moving from Arkansas to Northern Tennessee and into Southern Kentucky. This track favors a predominately cold rain event for us. However, early Sunday morning, areas near I-40 and northward and especially in Southern Kentucky counties, the precipitation will possibly start as an icing event before changing over to rain.
For Southern Kentucky into northern Middle Tennessee, a wintry mix of freezing rain, some snow, and rain will be possible, confined between 4 a.m and 1 p.m. on Sunday. Then, precipitation changes to rain by mid-morning and ends as a wintry mix of snow Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in eastern counties where some accumulations may occur.
With temps below freezing early Sunday morning, some could see slick spots develop on roadways in northwestern and northern counties, potentially near/south of I-40 if temperatures are below freezing as precipitation starts. We’ll keep you posted.
As temperatures warm up to the 40s, 50s, and even some 60s, our atmosphere will transition to a risk of severe thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) possible for areas near the Tennessee River (could be expanded east).
Regarding snow, a dusting of up to 1 inch appears possible Sunday night into Monday morning. There will also be a concern for a flash freeze as temperatures abruptly drop below freezing.
Monday’s cold temperatures are the beginning of the major Arctic air settling in for later this week. Projected temperatures could stay below freezing in Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky for much of next workweek!
Added wind will make it feel colder, and air temperatures could approach single digits for some locations on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
The key takeaways are that the first round of Arctic air arrives Friday with a few flurries, but colder air takes over. With that colder air in place there will be a window of opportunity on Sunday morning for a wintry mix near north of Interstate 40 into Southern Kentucky.
This changes over to all rain through the day, but ends as snow with the system pulling out Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, the major Arctic plunge settles in with temperatures below freezing from Monday to Thursday early afternoon.
There is still a lot to track with this storm setup in the coming days. Stay tuned for updates and more specific forecasts and impacts for areas that may experience all wintry precipitation types!
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