NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Christmas is next week and many are hoping for flakes to fly on Christmas Day. Let’s look at the historical chance for a white Christmas in Middle Tennessee and what we can expect this year.
According to the National Weather Service, in order for a Christmas to be a “White Christmas” at least one inch of snow needs to fall on the 25th or there needs to be at least one inch on the ground already.
Here is a map from the National Weather Service that shows the historical chance for a white Christmas across the United States.
Fortunately, the National Weather Service has more than 100 years of snowfall and snow depth data in Nashville. In order to make the math easy, we will look at the last 100 years to determine the historical chance of a white Christmas.
Going by the National Weather Service’s definition of at least an inch of snow, there is only a 5% chance of a white Christmas in Nashville. That means only 5 out of the last 100 years had at least one inch of snow on the ground or fallen on the 25th.
Most folks don’t care if we get an inch or a trace, so let’s look at the chance of any snow falling on Christmas. The chance goes up to 17% for Nashville to see at least a trace of snow on Christmas.
Nashvilles’ last Christmas with snow was in 2020 when we recorded a trace. The last time we saw at least an inch was in 2010.
Nashville’s snowiest Christmas was in 1963 when we had 6″ on the ground.
The most snow to fall on Christmas Day was in 1969 when we received 2.4″ of snowfall.
What about 2024?
Since we are only one week away, we have a pretty good idea of whether we have a chance for snow!
The most important thing we need to have a white Christmas is temperatures cold enough to support snow. Middle Tennessee will be plenty cold enough for snow on the weekend leading up to the holiday, but it doesn’t look like the cold will stick around long enough.
The forecast is for temperatures in the 40s and 50s across all of Middle Tennessee on Christmas.
It looks like we will have a better chance of a wet Christmas than a white one. The latest forecast models are showing a storm system bringing rain.
Unfortunately, for those who have been hoping for it, the chance is near zero for a white Christmas in 2024.
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