Spring Weather Outlook: What to expect in Tennessee this year

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released its 90-day outlook on Thursday for March, April, and May. That includes the spring severe weather season.

The forecast calls for both above-normal temperatures and precipitation averaged over the 90 days.

So, could this bring an increase in severe weather?

News 2 spoke with Ryan Husted, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Nashville:

“Going into a La Nina year, we typically have above normal severe weather, which could be large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,” Husted explained. “Now, in terms of tornadoes, it’s kind of a mixed signal. Either we could be below normal for our tornado statistics across the state of Tennessee, or we could be significantly above normal, say 30% or more.”

“With this La Nina spring upcoming, what this will mean for Middle Tennessee is that the surface low-pressure centers will go north of us,” Husted said.  “Last year, if you remember, they were going south of us. So, we were cool and not worried about severe weather until May. This year, we’re already worried about it. We’ve had two events so far in February and five tornadoes already. And that’s going to continue. We’re going to be on the warm side of these systems, so the thunderstorms will have that warm, moist air that they need to work with to produce severe weather.”

Low pressure passing to our north, keeping Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky in the “warm sector.”

“I would plan for a more active severe weather year this year,” Husted warned. “We’re not going to be waiting until May for the season to start. It’s already here. You can expect more severe weather, March-April-May during the peak of our traditional severe weather season. So, I would plan for more active severe weather.”

Husted also said that with above-normal precipitation, flooding could also be a concern this spring.